Quality versus quantity.
This debate stretches to the far reaches of our lives, from work to home, and especially at the sportsbook when making our weekly NFL picks.
Case in point: I recently purchased a new garlic press. I know, exciting stuff. Stay with me though.
Before I made a move, I debated buying a quality one for $20 or grabbing a shitty one from the Dollar Store for $3 — which was why I needed a new garlic press in the first place. My old shitty $3 one broke about eight months after replacing the $3 one before that.
At work, I’m always juggling quality and quantity. I want to provide as much insight and information into the NFL odds as I can but have multiple games to cover and deadlines to meet. I lean into the heavy-hitting info I believe is best, leave out a lot, and quickly move on to the next assignment to satiate both sides of the demand.
When it comes to picking NFL underdogs, is it best to go with a quality team set as a shorter dog or grab a lesser club getting a pile of points, hoping quantity can keep the favorite at bay?
Week 5 odds tempt us with both options.
In recent years, quality has been the better bet over quantity. Since 2018, NFL underdogs of less than six points (+5.5 or lower) are covering at a 55% clip.
Dogs of +6 or higher are 52% against the spread in that same span with pups of more than a touchdown (+7.5 or higher) coming through just 51.5% of the time, which isn’t enough to turn a profit.
So far this season, underdogs of less than six are 21-21 ATS while bigger dogs (+6 or higher) are 7-9-1 ATS (44%). And those really bad teams catching double digits — and we have two in Week 5 — they’re only 1-3 ATS in 2023.
Will I choose quality over quantity with my NFL Week 5 underdog bets? Well, let’s just say my garlic press problems should be resolved for the foreseeable future.
Last week: 1-2 ATSSeason: 7-5 ATS
